Oscar Predictions

Here's my Oscar list, with who I WANT to win and who I think WILL win in the major categories. This list is based purely on who has been nominated, rather that who I would REALLY want to win (otherwise I would put The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo as the film I WANT to win Best Picture). Also, forgive the lack of visually-stimulating text...am writing this from my phone as it's been 8 days since we moved into the new house and I still have no fucking internet for another four days.

Best Picture
Want: Toy Story 3
Will: The King's Speech

Best Director
Want: Tom Hooper (The King's Speech)
Will: David Fincher (The Social Network)

Best Actress
Want: Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Will: Natalie Portman (Black Swan)

Best Actor
Want: James Franco (127 Hours) or Colin Firth (The King's Speech) - can't make up my mind...
Will: Colin Firth (The King's Speech)

Best Supporting Actress
Want: Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
Will: Melissa Leo (The Fighter)

Best Supporting Actor
Want: Geoffrey Rush (The King's Speech)
Will: Christian Bale (The Fighter)

Best Animated Feature
Want: Toy Story 3
Will: Toy Story 3

Best Adapted Screenplay
Want: The Social Network
Will: The Social Network

Best Original Screenplay
Want: Inception
Will: The King's Speech

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Gary Busey Is INSANE!!

Now THIS was the funniest part of the Oscars last night. I love Gary Busey and thought he was great in The Buddy Holly Story (he actually did all the singing and playing himself AND was Oscar-nominated!), but man was he CARAAAAYYYZEEEE! Seacrest, for once, was funny.

Oscar Predictions

So here's how I'm gonna do this: Who I think WILL win, who I think SHOULD win and who I think definitely WON'T win.

Picture
WILL - No Country For Old Men
SHOULD - Atonement (though I would be happy for NCFOM, TWBB or Juno to also win)
WON'T - Michael Clayton

Director
WILL - The Coen brothers (NCFOM)
SHOULD - The Coens
WON'T - Tony Gilroy (Michael Clayton)

Actor
WILL - Daniel Day-Lewis (TWBB) - No contest
SHOULD - Daniel Day-Lewis (TWBB) - No contest
WON'T - Johnny Depp (Sweeney Todd)

Actress
WILL - Marion Cotillard (La Vie En Rose) - I think this will be one of the minor upsets of the night
SHOULD - Marion Cotillard
WON'T - Cate Blanchett (Elizabeth: The Golden Age) - she was great, but film widely derided

Supp. Actor
WILL - Javier Bardem (NCFOM)
SHOULD - Javier Bardem
WON'T - Tom Wilkinson (Michael Clayton)

Supp. Actress
WILL - Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone)
SHOULD - Amy Ryan
WON'T - Saoirse Ronan (Atonement) - though she was great, other perfs. in this category were simply better

Orig. Screenplay
WILL - Juno
SHOULD - Juno
WON'T - Ratatouille

Adap. Screenplay
WILL - Atonement
SHOULD - Atonement
WON'T - Away From Her

Animated feature
WILL - Ratatouille
SHOULD - The Simpsons Movie (but it's not even nominated!) - I haven't seen Surf's Up or Persepolis but from everything I've read, Persepolis probably deserves to win
WON'T - Surf's Up

It's the Coen brothers' year. I don't think there's gonna be one movie that sweeps the awards this year. I think the other categories will be split up evenly between a large array of different films. The only category I'm truly unsure of is adapted screenplay. This could go to NCFOM, TWBB or Atonement. I'm predicting Atonement due to the Academy's propensity to give a film with a lot of nominees - but none of the big wins - the screenplay award. We shall see...

Last year I got six out of nine correct. Can I do better this time?

My two penneth worth...

(Italics=who I want to win, Bold=who will win)
By no means have I seen ALL the movies nominated. My predictions on what will win are based on my knowledge of how the academy usually votes. My opinion on what I want to win is either because I've seen the work in question or from what I've read.

Picture
Babel
The Departed
Letters From Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen

Director
Martin Scorsese, THE DEPARTED
Paul Greengrass, UNITED 93
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, BABEL
Stephen Frears, THE QUEEN
Clint Eastwood, LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA

Actress
Helen Mirren, THE QUEEN
Judi Dench, NOTES ON A SCANDAL
Kate Winslet, LITTLE CHILDREN
Penelope Cruz, VOLVER
Meryl Street, THE DEVIL WEARS PRADA

Actor
Forest Whitaker, THE LAST KING OF SCOTLAND
Peter O'Toole, VENUS
Will Smith, THE PURSUIT OF HAPPYNESS
Leonardo DiCaprio, BLOOD DIAMOND
Ryan Gosling, HALF NELSON

Supporting Actress
Jennifer Hudson, DREAMGIRLS
Adriana Barraza, BABEL
Rinko Kinkuchi, BABEL
Abigail Breslin, LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE
Cate Blanchett, NOTES ON A SCANDAL

Supporting Actor
Eddie Murphy, DREAMGIRLS
Alan Arkin, LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE
Mark Wahlberg, THE DEPARTED
Djimon Hounsou, BLOOD DIAMOND
Jackie Earle Haley, LITTLE CHILDREN

Original Screenplay
THE QUEEN
LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE
BABEL
LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA
PAN'S LABYRINTH

Adapted Screenplay
THE DEPARTED
LITTLE CHILDREN
NOTES ON A SCANDAL
BORAT
CHILDREN OF MEN

Animated Feature
HAPPY FEET
CARS
MONSTER HOUSE


The only movie that can or will beat Babel to best picture is The Departed. For actor, I wouldn't mind if any of the nominees won. They're all fantastic. For actress, I want Dame Helen to win, but I secretly also want Penelope Cruz to win, too. I wouldn't begrudge Eddie Murphy his win if for no other reason than his excellent multiple-roles acting work in Coming To America and The Nutty Professor. Oh, and Monster House was EASILY the best animated movie I saw this year.